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ESREL 2018
 
 

  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

ESREL 2018 webpage - With call for papers, info and important dates

 

 
   
 
 
SRA 2017
 
 

 

 

 

Call for abstract (abstracts can be submitted until 31 May, 2017)

 

For more info see  SRA 2017 website

 
   
 
 
ESRA Webinar - A Tutorial on Global Sensitivity Analysis for Risk and Reliability Modelling
 
 

Webinar held 11 May 2017 'A Tutorial on Global Sensitivity Analysis for Risk and Reliability Modelling' by Professor Emanuele Borgonovo

Video

 See also Video here (Youtube)

 

About the speaker:

Professor Borgonovo is full Professor at the Department of Decision Sciences of Bocconi University, and director of the new Bachelor in Economics, Management and Computer Science of Bocconi University. He has been director of the ELEUSI Research Center from 2008 to 2012. He holds a Ph.D. in Probabilistic Risk Assessment from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, conducted under the supervision of Prof. George Apostolakis. He is the recipient of several national and international awards, among which the 2017 Chinese Academy of Sciences President’s Visiting Professor Fellowship, the 2015 IBM Faculty Award, the honorary memberships of “, The Scientific Research Society of North America”, “The Honorary Society of the American Nuclear Society,” the “McCormack fellowship of the Westinghouse Corporation,” as well as several best paper and excellence in refereeing awards. In 2016 he has been elected member of the Council of the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, and since 2013 he is the Co-Chair of the Committee on Uncertainty Analysis of the European Safety and Reliability Association.

He is co-editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Operational Research. He is also a member of the editorial boards of Risk Analysis, Reliability Engineering and System Safetythe Journal of Business Logisticsthe International Journal of Mathematics in Operational ResearchThe International Journal of Risk Management. He has published more than 100 scientific articles, with works appeared in journals such as Journal of the Royal Statistical Society BManagement ScienceOperations ResearchNature Climate ChangeRisk AnalysisEuropean Journal of Operational ResearchReliability Engineering & System Safety, etc..

His research interests concern quantitative methods for Sensitivity Analysis, Decision Analysis and Risk Analysis. In his works, he has addressed new reliability importance measures and has introduced new techniques in the field of sensitivity analysis of complex computer codes. 

Abstract

In this webinar, Professor Borgonovo provides the audience with a non-technical introduction to global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. He addresses first the notion of sensitivity analysis settings, to show the variety of questions that can be answered through global sensitivity methods. Then he enters into the details of some of the main global sensitivity analysis methods, including variance-based methods and moment-independent methods. He also addresses numerical aspects, highlighting the notion of given data estimation.

 

 
   
 
 
ESREL 2016 – Q&A on Methodological and Practical Issues relating to Safety and Reliability
 
 

Professors Aven and Zio hold a wide ranging discussion on the methodological and practical challenges and issues of broad interest regarding safety and reliability.

See the video here (Youtube)

 

 
   
 
 
ESRA Webinar - Alternative approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties in risk assessment
 
 
Webinar held 2 November 2016 'Alternative approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties in risk assessment' by Professor Michael Beer

Slides

Download Slides here (PDF)

Video

 See also Video here (Youtube)

 

About the speaker:

Michael Beer is Professor and Head of the Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany, since 2015. He is also part time Professor at the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool and in the Shanghai Institute of Disaster Prevention and Relief, Tongji University, China. He obtained a doctoral degree from the Technische Universität Dresden and pursued research at Rice University, supported with a Feodor-Lynen Fellowship from the Alexander von Humboldt-Foundation. From 2007 to 2011 Dr. Beer worked as an Assistant Professor at National University of Singapore. In 2011 he joined the University of Liverpool as Chair in Uncertainty in Engineering and Founding Director of the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty. In 2014 he established the EPSRC and ESRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Quantification and Management of Risk & Uncertainty in Complex Systems & Environments. Among other activities Dr. Beer is Editor in Chief (jointly) of the Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering (Springer) as well as Associate Editor of the ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems and Associate Editor of the International Journal of Reliability and Safety. Dr. Beer’s research is focused on non-traditional uncertainty models in engineering with emphasis on reliability and risk analysis.  

 

Abstract

Epistemic uncertainties appear across all engineering fields to quite some significant extent. Although they can often be described phenomenologically and qualitatively, they counteract a rigorous quantitative description, which is needed as a basis for a realistic risk assessment. In the presence of epistemic uncertainties the specification of a probabilistic model and the associated risk analysis lead to hypothetical results presuming some intuitive guess to capture the influence of the epistemic uncertainty. That is, we quantify risk based on conditions that represent assumptions rather than facts. Such results can be significantly misleading. It is thus of paramount importance to quantify epistemic uncertainties most realistically. This quantification should neither introduce unwarranted information nor should it neglect information. On this basis there is a clear consensus that epistemic uncertainties need to be taken into account for a realistic assessment of risk and reliability. However, there is no clearly defined procedure to master this challenge. There are rather a variety of concepts and approaches available to deal with epistemic uncertainties, from which the engineer can chose. This choice is made difficult by the perception that the available concepts are competing and opposed to one another rather than being complementary and compatible. Clearly, the first consideration should be devoted to a probabilistic modelling, naturally through subjective probabilities, which express a belief of the expert and can be integrated into a fully probabilistic framework in a coherent manner via a Bayesian approach. While this pathway is widely accepted and recognized as being very powerful, the potential of set-theoretical approaches and imprecise probabilities has only been utilized to some minor extent. Those approaches, however, attract increasing attention in cases when available information is not rich enough to meaningfully specify subjective probability distributions. In this talk, we discuss the phenomena  

 

 
   
 
 
ESRA Webinar - Challenges and opportunities in reliability engineering: the big KID (Knowledge, Information and Data)
 
 

Webinar held 14 June 2016 'Challenges and opportunities in reliability engineering: the big KID (Knowledge, Information and Data)' by Professor Enrico Zio

Slides

Download Slides here (PDF)

Video

 See also Video here (Youtube)

 

About the speaker:

Enrico Zio (M'06–SM' 09) is the Director of the Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge of the Foundation Electricite' de France (EDF) at CentraleSupélec, Paris, France, full professor and President of the Alumni Association at Politecnico di Milano, adjunct professor at University of Stavanger, Norway, City University of Hong Kong, Beihang University and Wuhan University, China and Co-Director of the Center for REliability and Safety of Critical Infrastructures (CRESCI), China. His research focuses on the modeling of the failure-repair-maintenance behavior of components and complex systems, for the analysis of their reliability, maintainability, prognostics, safety, vulnerability, resilience and security characteristics, and on the development and use of Monte Carlo simulation methods, soft computing techniques and optimization heuristics. 

 

Abstract

Today’s fast-pace evolving and digitalizing World is posing new challenges to reliability engineering. On the other hand, the continuous advancement of technical knowledge and the increasing capabilities of monitoring and computing offer opportunities for new developments in reliability engineering. In this talk, we will exchange on some of these challenges and opportunities in research and application. The underlying perspective taken stands on the belief that the knowledge, information and data (KID) available for the modeling, computations and analyses done in reliability engineering is substantially grown and continue to do so.  

 

 
   
 
 
ESRA Webinar - What is risk?
 
 
 
Webinar held 17 March 2016 'What is risk?' by Professor Terje Aven

 

Slides

Download Slides here (PDF)

Questions and answers

Download Questions and answers here (PDF)

Video

See also Video here (Youtube)

 

About the speaker:

Terje Aven is Professor in Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University of Stavanger, Norway. He has many years of experience as a risk analyst and consultant in the industry. He is the author of many books and papers in the field, covering both fundamental issues as well as practical risk analysis methods. In the last 15 years, his main research focus has been foundational issues in risk analysis and risk management, and work on the conceptualization of risk in particular. He is the Chairman of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA) and a member of the Council of the international Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). He is also the Chairman of the Specialty Group of SRA on Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis (http://www.sra.org/frasg).  

 

Abstract

In the talk, Aven review and discuss trends in the way risk is defined and understood in a professional risk analysis context. Aven provides background and motivation for current thinking about risk, and points to some important implications for the foundation and practice of risk assessments and management. In particular, the ISO 31000 definition of risk is discussed.